Make no mistake about it, the future of Java is in trouble. We can all sit around and argue
how it is the right thing to do and how much development has been invested in
it already, but we also did that with OS/2 and look where it is today. The
mantra of "write once, run anywhere" is about to be replaced with
"write once, run anywhere - except Microsoft." Since losing the Java decision
to Sun Microsystems, Microsoft has set upon a course of methodically obliterating
Java, and unless someone steps up to challenge Bill Gates & Company, whether
it be another computer company or the federal government, than I'm afraid Java's
days are numbered.
If Microsoft has taught us anything, it is that there are three golden rules
for marketing:
- Study industrial trends and your competition carefully. Allow your
competition to invest heavily in cutting-edge research and development (not
yourself), then undermine them by giving away an inferior product for nothing;
then raise prices over time.
- Control public opinion (capture "mindshare") - establish a propaganda machine
that Joseph Goebbels would envy and sway public opinion with elements of
rumor, and misinformation. The objective here is to get people to behave
like lemmings which will go wherever you tell them to.
- Undermine any attempt to standardize. Standardization means ruin if you
cannot control the standard. If you have to play on the same level playing field
with everyone else, then you have lost your advantage. Instead of appearing to be
an uncooperative villain though, look like a hero by subrogating existing standards with
your own. The message is clear: if you cannot control it, destroy it.
Forget about building a reputation based on quality "state of the art" products
and services. If you can master these three elements of marketing, than you can
control your own destiny. To this end, Microsoft took two clear shots at Java
and its proponents over the Summer:
Microsoft is making C# an open source alternative to Java, which will be tempting
to developers, particularly those who voice concern over Sun's control over Java. I'm
sure C# will also have hooks to Windows that will benefit Microsoft and no one else. Is C#
a better alternative as a programming language to Java? Probably not, but it is being
done in accordance with the three golden rules of marketing as listed above.
What does this mean to OS/2? If Microsoft is successful in undermining Java with C#,
then OS/2's very existence is threatened. Let's not forget that Java was sold to us
by IBM as the intelligent direction for computing platforms to go; that we should
not worry about the platform as much as we should about the program. As OS/2 users,
we were promised a multitude of useful Java programs that could run on our desktops. Unfortunately,
far too little was delivered in this regard.
If C# is successful, then Java's future is cloudy and OS/2's is dark, unless, of course, someone
at IBM puts C# into the operating system, which is highly unlikely considering the
limited resources IBM is devoting to OS/2 development.
Keep the Faith!
